Big Sam, Arbitrage, Mean Reversion and First Mover Advantage

Today I was listening to a podcast about Sam Allardyce, or Big Sam as he’s known colloquially. For those not familiar with him he’s a football manager who’s famous for taking the helm at struggling teams and saving them from relegation. Because of the way his teams play he’s often ridiculed but what’s not widely acknowledged is that Big Sam is a great manager which his track record attests to.

Another thing people don’t talk about was how he helped to bring modern methods to the English top flight from the time he spent observing American football. In those days sports science was not the done thing in England and so when he brought over the techniques he had seen in the states he could get a 5-10% boost over his competition.

Now how does this relate to pick-up?

All sexual encounters take place inside the SMP and in a perfectly efficient market there’s the principle of “no arbitrage.” For those uninitiated: arbitrage means making a riskless profit. In the SMP we normally use the term arbitrage to mean Daygaming in a different area to your home city where you have an advantage. In essence you’ve taken the SMV you use at home and put it somewhere else and are now making outsized returns; the difference between your regular returns and your outsized returns are the “arbitrage.”

In a perfectly efficient SMP you would get the same returns no matter where you Daygamed, and this is where the world is heading (though I don’t foresee us reaching near this state anytime soon). We could also describe this state as “getting what you deserve.”

Next we should have a look at the fact that the SMP is mean-reverting. Over time you can maintain a long term average A:L ratio for a certain quality of girl given your own SMV. The little positive and negative blips – hot streaks versus dry runs – balance themselves out. So if you want to get better consistent results you have to improve your SMV: get the same girls with less work or higher quality with the same work.

But what about Game? I hear (some of) you ask. I see Game as being part of SMV (under charisma) and so improving your Game improves your SMV. Most guys start with anti-Game and so what they “deserve” is actually worse than their looks and status combined. Once they eradicate their anti-Game they can get looks plus status matched girls before eventually getting girls above their looks plus status station.

Now we should look at the principle of “first mover advantage.” This means that the first entrant into a market is going to, for a time, be able to earn outsized returns. Just remember the boost Big Sam got when he introduced the things he’d learned in America. We actually have laws which encourage this in markets such as patents because it promotes innovation. Just think: you’re more incentivised to invent the iPhone because the first person to do so is going to take massive market share; over time more things get invented and society benefits from that.

This is what we see in the SMP with someone who introduces a new technique. A complaint I hear from some guys who have done Daygame for a long time is that Daygame used to be easier. I can imagine why: street approaching hadn’t been industrialised and condensed into a teachable form when they started and it made their approaches stand out to the girl. As time has moved on the novelty value of a street approach is lessened and guys need to rely on their SMV. Now, there will always be some value to a street approach because of AA – it is an inherently hard thing to do and so the act of doing it shows value – but it will have less of an impact than it used to.

Just some thoughts I ended up having as a result of listening to a podcast about football.

Yours unfaithfully,

Thomas Crown

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